The volume of future first round picks exchanged for star players is expected to decline in the near term as a result of the NBA's new lottery reform. Teams are choosing to wait and understand the full implications of the new system before committing draft capital.

The NBA's proposed "3-2-1" lottery format is headed for a Board of Governors vote on May 28 and is widely expected to pass. Beginning next season, teams finishing fourth through tenth would each hold an equal 8.1% shot at the top overall pick. The expanded lottery would include 16 teams, drawing in more than half the league.

That wider participation is the core issue as when more teams carry a realistic chance at a franchise-altering selection, the incentive to hold picks rather than trade them grows considerably. Front offices that once moved future assets freely are now treating them with greater care.

The looming trade market for Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo will illustrate the state of the market. As his future in Milwaukee moves toward resolution, teams assembling offers must weigh precisely how much draft capital makes sense to surrender under a lottery system that rewards depth of misfortune less than it once did.

The experience of the Indiana Pacers from Sunday's lottery serves as a cautionary example leaguewide. The Pacers lost their top-four protected first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers, a condition attached to February's Ivica Zubac trade, after drawing the fifth slot. The outcome has reinforced the stakes of attaching picks to trades.

Franchises that may never feel compelled to truly tank and bottom out could still hold valuable picks after just missing out on the playoffs.

Teams are currently limited in the number of picks they can trade due to the Stepien rule, but they may now put additional guardrails on themselves out of fear of trading away a future top pick.