After another postseason letdown, the Yankees will focus on rebuilding the bullpen and figuring out how to remake a one-dimensional offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

• Aaron Judge, OF: $200MM through 2031
• Max Fried, SP: $174MM through 2032
• Cody Bellinger, OF: $110MM through 2030 (can opt out after 2027 and 2028 seasons)
• Gerrit Cole, SP: $72MM through 2028
• Carlos Rodon, SP: $54MM through 2028
• Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $35MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins covering $20MM of remaining salary)
• Ryan McMahon, 3B: $16MM through 2027

2027 guarantees: $205.5MM
Total future commitments: $661MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

• Clarke Schmidt (5.148): $4.5MM
• Luis García Jr. (5.142): $11MM
• Ryan Weathers (4.066): $3.1MM
• Fernando Cruz (4.035): $2.3MM
• José Caballero (3.170): $3.7MM
• Anthony Volpe (3.142): $4MM
• Luis Gil (3.119): $2.3MM
• Heliot Ramos (3.103): $3.2MM
• Austin Wells (3.031): $2.6MM
• Non-tender candidates: Cruz, Ramos

Free Agents

• David Bednar, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trent Grisham, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber, Tim Hill, Amed Rosario, Michael Fulmer

The 2025 season saw the Yankees win 94 games, defeat the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and lose to the AL East champion Blue Jays in the ALDS.  2026 was almost a case of deja vu, as this year’s Bronx Bombers won 93 games, again topped Boston in the ALWCS, and then lost to the AL East champion Rays in the ALDS.

The chief difference between the two seasons was Aaron Judge was limited to only 66 games this year.  After suffering a stress fracture in his right ribcage on April 26, Judge initially seemed fine playing through the pain, but he had only a .528 OPS over his last 51 plate appearances before he was finally placed on the 10-day injured list on June 2.  Judge didn’t return until September 8, and he then delivered only a .513 OPS in 24 PA over seven games before sustaining a right calf strain.  This final injury sidelined Judge for the rest of the regular season and the entire postseason.

Even with these two cold stretches, Judge still hit .241/.360/.511 with 18 homers over 285 total PA, and his 140 wRC+ ranked 13th in baseball among players with at least 250 trips to the plate.  The glass half-full view is simple — if Judge had been healthy, maybe that alone might’ve been enough to get the Yankees though a watered-down American League and at least back to the World Series.

The more pessimistic view of the 2026 campaign is also straight-forward.  Judge’s absence exposed the faults in the team’s lineup, as New York’s offense vanished almost the moment Judge hit the IL.  The Yankees’ 116 team wRC+ ranked second in the league through May 31, but from June 1 until season’s end, only five teams produced less than New York’s 93 wRC+.

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For the year as a whole, the Yankees finished second in the majors in home runs, sixth in stolen bases, and fifth in walk rate.  Despite that high walk rate, New York was still 24th in team OBP (.311), as the club’s 26th-ranked .235 batting average and 24.7% strikeout rate were both in the bottom five of all teams.  Simply put, if the Bronx Bombers weren’t hitting any bombs over the outfield wall, the offense had no secondary approach to scoring runs.

Ben Rice has a healthy amount of swing-and-miss in his game, but Rice was the only lineup regular who had a truly great year at the plate.  Cody Bellinger and Luis Garcia Jr. provided only okay production for the Yankees in 2026, so a lot more will be expected next year.  Shortstop George Lombard Jr. and outfielder Spencer Jones performed respectably well in their first MLB seasons, and the Yankees now hope the two former top prospects take another step forward in everyday roles.

The early plan is for Jones to slide into the center field position in place of Trent Grisham, who likely won’t be re-signed after an underwhelming year.  Jones didn’t fare well defensively in center so Bellinger might also get a good amount of time up the middle, but whatever the alignment, Jones, Bellinger, and Judge are lined up as the starting outfield.  Utilityman Jose Caballero, Heliot Ramos, Jasson Dominguez, and maybe Giancarlo Stanton will provide backup, but there’s no guarantee any of these depth options will return.

Caballero will likely be retained due to his speed and versatility, but he doesn’t provide much at the plate.  Ramos had only a .688 OPS after being acquired from the Giants at the trade deadline, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he was traded or even non-tendered if the Yankees think they can find a better part-time outfielder elsewhere.  Dominguez had a -0.2 fWAR over 57 games and 222 PA, and could be a trade candidate (albeit in sell-low fashion) as his once sky-high prospect stock has continued to dim.

Stanton’s 2026 season was limited to 24 regular-season games and two pinch-hit at-bats in the playoffs, as injuries to both calves basically made it a lost season for the veteran slugger.  Stanton is entering the final guaranteed season of the 13-year, $325MM extension he signed with the Marlins in November 2014, and the Marlins are responsible for $20MM of the $35MM still owed on that contract.

As I explored in another post earlier this month, $15MM could be a small enough number for New York to consider eating, as in simply releasing Stanton.  The Yankees would have to eat a lot of that money anyway to facilitate a trade, and Stanton might not even approve a deal given the no-trade clause in his contract.  Parting ways with Stanton opens up a 26-man roster spot for a player with defensive value, and it creates more room for the Yankees to rotate multiple players (like Judge) into the DH spot for partial rest days.

Garcia might be the key figure in the Stanton decision, as manager Aaron Boone floated the idea of Garcia being used as a second baseman next season.  If Garcia is able to capably play second base, that answers both the Yankees’ vacancy at the keystone and removes another name from the first base/DH mix, leaving Rice as the everyday first baseman and Stanton as the designated hitter.

The issue, of course, is that Garcia was a dreadful defensive second baseman during his time in Washington, which is what prompted the Nationals to make him a full-time first baseman heading into 2026.  The position switch may well have contributed to Garcia’s big improvement as a hitter, so the Yankees may not want to risk hurting his bat by trying to shoehorn Garcia back into a second base role.  Even if Garcia is passably good at second base, “passable” might not be enough for a team that has a number of defensive questions.

The middle-ground answer could be to wait until Spring Training to give Garcia some reps at second base.  If he can handle the position well, New York can roll with Garcia at the keystone and then perhaps explore a reunion with Paul Goldschmidt as further 1B/DH depth.  If Garcia is still struggling defensively, the Yankees can pencil Garcia and Rice into the first base and DH positions, with Stanton, a re-signed Goldschmidt, or another right-handed bat as depth in those two spots.

Waiting until Spring Training to decide on how to approach two or three positions might sound risky, but the impending lockout is going to greatly alter the offseason calendar.  The Yankees would obviously prefer to have as few lingering questions as possible whenever the lockout eventually ends and the transactions frenzy begins, but that depends on how many moves the club is able to make before December 1.

New York’s second base spot is considered an open position because of the expectation that Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be let go in free agency, probably without even a qualifying offer.  Chisholm posted 3.5 fWAR and 41 stolen bases, but a big power dropoff led to a 98 wRC+ from his 19 homers and .231/.312/.399 slash line over 532 PA.  The two-time All-Star also had the highest strikeout rate (29.5%) of any Yankee with at least 290 plate appearances.

Third base is another problem area.  MLBTR’s AJ Eustace recently observed that the idea of the Yankees eating Stanton’s $15MM salary is complicated by the fact that they might also consider releasing Ryan McMahon, who is owed $16MM in the final year of his deal.  McMahon generated only 0.5 fWAR over 124 games and 360 PA in 2026, as his lack of offense was compounded by surprisingly middling glovework for a player who has been one of the game’s better defenders.

Acquiring a reliable everyday infielder for either second or third base would add a lot of stability to the infield as a whole, particularly since Lombard is still unproven at the big league level.  Caballero provides utility infield depth and Anthony Volpe is still around as a potential platoon candidate for second or third base, now that New York has moved him off shortstop.  The Bombers haven’t given up on Volpe, but his continued lack of offense makes him hard to trust as any kind of reliable lineup regular.

Teruaki Sato isn’t proven in the majors given that he has spent his whole career in Japan, but the Yankees reportedly have interest in the slugging third baseman/outfielder as he prepares to be posted for MLB teams this winter.  Brandon Lowe’s left-handed bat could do some real damage to the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, though Lowe is another strikeout-prone player.  Luis Arraez is the opposite, as a second base option with little power but a big help for a club looking to boost its average and contact numbers.

This trio are probably the best everyday options among the available free agent second and third basemen, though J.P. Crawford stands out as an intriguing possibility since the Yankees or other teams could toggle him between both positions.  Any number of possibilities exist on the trade front, and the Yankees have the type of pitching depth that can get the ball rolling on a lot of deals.

Austin Wells’ .186/.292/.332 slash line and 14 home runs over 388 PA resulted in an ugly 77 wRC+, though Wells hit considerably better over the final two months of the season.  This late-season surge and Wells’ strong defense might’ve been enough to retain his starting job, but New York could conceivably look to flip Wells in a trade and land another everyday catcher.  Free agents Ryan Jeffers and Tyler Stephenson were both connected to the Yankees in rumors around the trade deadline, though Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reported in September that the Yanks were never really interested in Stephenson because of his poor framing. Jeffers could still be a possibility and the club figures to at least check in on potential trade candidates like Hunter Goodman and Shea Langeliers.

As usual, the Bombers have the financial flexibility to explore all free agent options, and to consider adding big contracts in trades.  MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker indicates that New York already has over $258.2MM committed to its 2027 payroll, with a Competitive Balance Tax number of just over $284MM. The CBT tiers for 2027 won’t be known until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place, but since the Yankees have exceeded all four penalty tiers in each of the last four seasons, the luxury tax won’t be much of an obstacle.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Yankees were carried to the playoffs by their excellent pitching, and perhaps the game’s best rotation.  Cam Schlittler’s first full Major League season will probably result in the AL Cy Young Award.  Max Fried and Carlos Rodon both looked terrific when healthy, though injuries limited the two southpaws to 36 combined starts (Fried 112 2/3 IP, Rodon 84 1/3 IP).  Gerrit Cole was a little homer-prone but otherwise solid over 127 innings after the righty missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Will Warren and Ryan Weathers pitched well and were unsung heroes in covering a lot of innings in the wake of all these injuries.

Elmer Rodriguez chipped in with six starts, though the top prospect posted a 5.40 ERA in his first 26 2/3 innings in the Show.  Luis Gil had a 4.61 ERA in 27 1/3 innings and spent most of the season injured or in the minors, but he did well in a small sample of relief appearances after returning to the majors in late August.  Clarke Schmidt spent most of the year rehabbing from his June 2025 Tommy John procedure, but was able to make one relief appearance for the Yankees in September.  Carlos Lagrange is in line to make his MLB debut in 2027, and Lagrange is one of many interesting young arms in the Yankees’ pitching-heavy farm system.

Schlittler, Cole, Rodon, and Fried aren’t going anywhere, and Rodriguez is probably untouchable outside of offers for a true premium talent.  Any other starter could feasibly be on the table in trade negotiations, and Warren would have the most value given his two seasons of good results and four remaining years of team control.

It’s probably safe to assume the Yankees will dip into their pitching depth to some extent this winter, but naturally the team will prefer to move minor league arms who are further away from the big leagues.  Warren may be a little overqualified as a fifth starter and Weathers a luxury as a virtual sixth starter, but given the injury histories of Cole and Rodon (and Fried’s issues this year in recovering from a bone bruise in his throwing elbow), New York surely values having as many viable rotation arms as possible.

Breaking some of the younger starters into the majors as relief pitchers might also help fill some holes in a bullpen that could be ravaged by free agency.  David Bednar, Paul Blackburn, Ryan Yarbrough, John Schreiber, and Tim Hill are all set to hit the open market, and Fernando Cruz is a potential non-tender candidate given the partial UCL tear in his right elbow.  The 2026 pen wasn’t far behind the rotation in terms of overall effectiveness, so restocking the relief corps will be an offseason priority.

Re-signing Bednar is the most obvious step towards a reload.  Bednar’s excellent performance over his 15 months in the pinstripes indicates that he can handle the pressure of closing in the Bronx, and he figures to naturally have some interest in returning to pitch for a consistent contender.  This probably doesn’t mean Bednar will accept much or any of a hometown discount, since the 32-year-old is surely looking to cash in as one of the best available relievers in this year’s free agent class.

The Yankees reportedly made a big push for Adrian Morejon at this year’s trade deadline, and Morejon figures to be on the radar again now that he’ll be hitting the open market.  Morejon has primarily been a set-up man but could be elevated to closer by any team that signs him this winter.  If the Yankees wanted to be bold, they could splurge on both Bednar and Morejon, and this duo in combination with Brent Headrick would form such a fearsome late-game trio.

Two big expenditures in the pen would probably mean that the rest of the relief corps would be filled out by internal candidates or lower-cost veterans, as the Yankees have shown a knack for turning unheralded pitchers into quality arms.  Instead of re-signing Paul Blackburn, for instance, New York would seek out the “next” Blackburn in a hidden-gem type of pickup.

Pitching coach Matt Blake has been a key figure in this pitching development success, and he’ll be returning on a new contract.  This brings the band back together, since Boone is returning and GM Brian Cashman has been signed to yet another contract extension.

The Yankees haven’t had a losing season since 1992, and have missed the postseason only five times in Cashman’s 29 seasons as general manager.  By the Bombers’ own high standards, “only” two World Series appearances in the last 23 years (and one championship in 2009) counts as a disappointment, and a sizeable number of Bronx fans have been calling for a change in at least one of the dugout or the front office.

While changes aren’t yet happening, Cashman has to figure out a way to maximize this core group of talent.  Maybe that means doubling down on the run prevention and adding some top-line defenders to help the pitching staff, or diversifying the offense with some contact-hitting or speedier players.  The formula of hitting a couple of homers and hoping that the pitching staff can entirely lock down opponents hasn’t been working come October, and it will probably take more than just a healthy Judge to put the Yankees over the top.