Owen Murphy Photo: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

As we approach August, now is a good time to take a fresh look at the farm systems of some of the clubs we expect to be buyers at the trade deadline. These teams are both contending for a playoff berth and in clear need of a significant upgrade, the kind that will likely require parting with a top farmhand or two. We’ll begin today with the Atlanta Braves. In tandem with an evaluation of the team’s needs and deadline posture, we’ve updated Atlanta’s Top Prospect list to account for the graduations of Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie, incorporate the new draftees, and reflect a number of promising developments on the farm. If you were solely to evaluate a farm system by its performance relative to expectations, the Braves have a case for the top spot in the league, and that newfound depth looms as a key factor in the club’s playoff push.

The Situation
For a while, the Braves seemed poised to boat race the NL East. The club went 40-20 over the first two months of the season and built a 10-game lead over the Phillies. The Mets, also projected to be strong contenders in the division, languished even less threateningly in dead last.

New York remains buried, but the rest of the division has turned this into a battle. Amidst a rash of injuries, Atlanta went 9-14 in June and has hovered around .500 in July. In that time, the team has seen its lead over Philadelphia shrink to 4 1/2 games. The Braves are still a likely playoff team — their odds of making the postseason are just shy of 97% — but their divisional odds have shrunk from 89% at the start of June to approximately 75% today. With holes on both sides of the ball, Atlanta should be seeking reinforcements to fortify its playoff push, and then make noise if and when the club makes it to October.

Needs: Starting Pitching, Designated Hitter, Outfield Depth

Chris Sale remains Chris Sale, a future Hall of Famer still at the peak of his remarkable powers. Behind him, Martín Pérez, Grant Holmes, and Bryce Elder have been load-bearing members of a rotation that ranks ninth in baseball in ERA but just 23rd in FIP. That previous sentence all but renders further analysis unnecessary.

The Braves have several internal options to eat innings. Reynaldo López recently returned to the starting five. Ritchie has pitched unevenly in his first big league exposure but has flashed some of the promise that made him a Top 100 name last winter. Meanwhile, AJ Smith-Shawver is on the comeback trail and Spencer Schwellenbach could be a factor down the stretch as well. Owen Murphy made his first big league start over the weekend, and untested farmhands like Lucas Braun and Drue Hackenberg sit at varying levels of prepared to contribute. Fuentes has worked primarily in short relief this year, but he projects as a starter long-term and could theoretically be stretched out as well.

The names listed above will undoubtedly be part of the solution, but the lack of a compelling option to start Game 2 of a playoff series is conspicuous in its absence. After Sale, there really isn’t a starter here you’d pencil in for 12 starts of 3.50 ERA ball. Of the playoff contenders, Atlanta has arguably the biggest need for a frontline starter.

On the other side of the ball, the Braves have one of the league’s deepest lineups when everybody is healthy. Their lack of depth has been exposed, though, and while Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return will lengthen the lineup, shortstop, third base, and DH look ripe for an upgrade. At short, Ha-Seong Kim has dealt with injuries for much of the season and been ineffective when available; he’s currently working his way back from inflammation in the same finger that was surgically repaired this offseason. While Jorge Mateo and more recently Jim Jarvis have backfilled capably, this is a case where it seems prudent to thank those two for their fine work and seek reinforcement rather than try to keep the party going.

Dominic Smith has provided approximately league-average production at DH. He’s done his usual good work against righties (.281/.329/.427), and a right-handed platoon partner should be an affordable and sufficient solution. On the other hand, the Austin Riley-sized hole at third base is a problem for which there may be no short-term solution.

State of the Minors
As mentioned earlier, the Braves have had a big year on the farm. Eric Hartman is arguably the biggest breakout prospect in the entire sport, and has rocketed from a 40-FV fourth outfielder projection to being a potential middle-of-the-order bat in center. He’s grown significantly stronger, and has combined a full grade of additional raw power with a newfound ability to lift the ball. He still looks like a plus runner, too. We debated launching him directly into the 55 FV tier, and while we ultimately settled on a 50 FV, he was the biggest climber in our recent Top 100 update.

Tate Southisene shrugged off a discouraging debut cameo in Low-A last year, and after battering Carolina League arms for a couple months, was recently promoted to High-A Rome. He’s changed his setup at the plate, quieted some of his mechanics, and shortened his swing. The cumulative effect is that he’s been able to make a decent rate of contact while still tapping into his power, which is comfortably average already. He has also stolen 44 bases and has a chance to become a plus defender at short. With this recent update, he enters our Top 100.

Briggs McKenzie is the other big climber. He got the largest bonus in Atlanta’s 2025 draft class as a slender and projectable lefty with advanced feel to pitch but below-average arm strength. A year later, he’s filled out some, added several ticks, and has a chance to grow into even more velocity. He’s surged into the Top 10 of this system and made a real case for midseason Top 100 inclusion. We’d like to see him hold this stuff deeper into games and over more innings before we toggle that lever, but the arrow is up here.

A couple of the high-ranking prospects have held serve. Cam Caminiti’s changeup is playing better, but his slider doesn’t look quite as sharp, and he’s struggled to throw strikes a bit more than we anticipated coming into the season. There’s no change to his grade or his ceiling, which remains that of a mid-rotation starter. After showing up looking significantly bigger year over year, John Gil is hitting for more power than last season (as we anticipated) but has also started seeing a lot of time at second base. We’re holding his FV for now. Luke Sinnard has looked great when healthy, but abdominal issues have limited him to a handful of appearances. He could rise on the offseason list with a big finish to 2026.

You can also see the fruits of a pretty interesting 2026 draft here. AJ Gracia had one of the better hit tools in the class, and has a chance to grow into power; he’s got a good shot to become a regular in a corner. Kaiden McCarthy is an undersized high school pitcher who recently grew into elite arm strength and has nasty secondary stuff to go with it. Jensen Hirschkorn is a prep arm with the opposite profile, as a tall guy with body control and physical projection but not yet fully developed arm strength; McKenzie was in a similar place this time last year. Finally, Carter Beck is a flier worth a mention here. He was taken late in the first round, and while he wasn’t really in that orbit on our draft rankings, it’s going to be pretty exciting to watch the Braves try to run it back with another cold-weather prospect, à la Hartman and Owen Carey. He’s one I’ve already earmarked for a fresh re-eval on the offseason lists.

While this isn’t a complete re-evaluation of the system — there just isn’t enough time to do that midseason — a few players from the honorable mentions of last winter’s overview have played their way onto the main section of the list. Isaiah Drake is a toolsy athlete. His swing scares me a little, but he’s performing as a 21-year-old in High-A. He’s one I’m paying close attention to down the stretch. Davis Polo’s stuff is back in his return from Tommy John, and he’s returned to his previous prospect orbit. Finally, Cedric De Grandpre is throwing harder, and with more strikes, than he did last season. He was promoted to Triple-A just prior to publication.

The most notable arrow down players are Alex Lodise and Diego Tornes. Lodise still looks like a slick defender at short, but his measurable power has declined significantly in pro ball. His 90th-percentile exit velocity and max EV are both down four ticks from what he produced in college, and it now looks like my power projections were overcooked. He already had significant hit tool risk, and he slides into the 40 FV tier in this update. Tornes was a risk/reward toolshed coming over from the international complex. A rib issue delayed the start of his season and lingering effects from it may explain part of his inability to drive the ball. Regardless, he hasn’t hit at all, and while I still like the athlete, he’s clearly not on the fast track. Garrett Baumann also dips a bit after a rough ride at the upper levels. I still like the arm strength and body control, and I see a path for him to contribute significantly, but the breaking stuff hasn’t played and he’s not especially deceptive.

The trouble, as far as Atlanta’s 2026 playoff push is concerned, is that none of the hitters are ready to contribute in the big leagues, as they’re all in A-ball. Some of the upper-level pitchers can and presumably will chip in to some degree, likely in a supporting role. The breakouts give the Braves an unexpectedly flush group of trade chips, if nothing else. Our updated list should excite Atlanta fans, even if it’s with a melancholic tinge, as some of these names are presumably not long for the organization.

Again, you can see the full updated list on The Board, along with scouting reports and tool grades.

In a recent radio hit, Alex Anthopoulos, Atlanta’s president of baseball operations, said that nobody is off the table entirely, though there’s one guy in particular they’d really like to hang on to; the mystery man is presumably Hartman. High-A bats and upper-level arms are the two areas where the Braves have a lot of depth. Trade partners seeking a near-ready pitcher seem likelier to ply Murphy or Ritchie away than Fuentes, as the latter has carved out a short-term role for himself in the bullpen. Of the bats ranked below Hartman and Southisene, Conor Essenburg looks like a particularly interesting risk/reward proposition. He’s a 19-year-old with power and a cold weather background. While there’s a lot of hit tool risk here, he’s made more contact in recent weeks, and for any team that thinks he’s on the cusp of figuring things out, now is the time to make a move.