Tampa Bay Rays (1) at Milwaukee Brewers (1), 8:00 PM ET

TB: Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 116 DRA-)
MIL: Jacob Misiorwoski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 59 DRA-)

This matchup was almost Drew Rasmussen versus Jacob Misiorowski, before the Rays changed their minds and went with veteran Nick Martinez instead. With all due respect to both Martinez himself (as we’ll see, he deserves plenty) and the admittedly interesting and smart logic the Rays seem to be basing this decision on—boo! Yes, I know the Rays now have the starting pitching advantage in Games 2 through 4. Yes, I know this frees them up to use their bullpen aggressively in this game. Still, boo!

Let’s talk about Tampa’s starter, then. Martinez has been a pro for a decade and a half, a long career that has seen him come out of the bullpen and start close to equally as often. The 2026 season was the best of his career in terms of results, with his first All-Star appearance and a career-high in innings pitched—the peripherals don’t love him as much as his results do, though, largely because he possesses one of the lowest strikeout rates in the sport. He’s also a pretty extreme flyball pitcher. This is often a losing combination, but Martínez has been pulling this off for long enough that it’s not just luck.

As a pitcher, Martinez makes for an amusing contrast to his mound opponent; the veteran righty is all about command and weak contact. (If he hits 94 mph on the radar gun, you know he’s amped up.) Martinez succeeds not only because his command is superb, but also because his pitch mix is designed to get batters to mishit the ball: he throws all three fastball variants in any count, attacks every quadrant of the zone, and has a beautiful parachute changeup that tunnels well with everything he throws. He also just throws a lot of strikes.

The matchup between Martinez’s exquisite command and willingness to pour in strikes and the Brewers’ team-wide patient approach is incredibly interesting. Milwaukee had the second-lowest swing rate on pitches in the zone this season, but they also had the lowest swing rate in baseball, period. (And by a lot.) Whether they maintain that approach or look to jump on Martinez early will be key to how this game unfolds. Don’t expect the starter to overstay his welcome, though. Kevin Cash has a rested bullpen and his ace waiting in Game 2, with a rest day following that contest; this is the time for him to get aggressive.

As for Misiorowski, well all know of his regular season exploits, so I won’t dwell on them here beyond reminding everyone that it was one of the most dominant pitching seasons ever on a rate basis thanks to one of the best fastballs ever. Just getting that out there before someone on the broadcast inevitably tells us all that the reason for Misiorowski’s struggles is that, actually, he throws too hard and needs to take a few ticks off his fastball.

Another reason that reminder might be needed is that Misiorowski has looked anything but unbeatable this October. The Brewers’ ace has made two postseason starts. Twice he’s failed to get past the fifth inning; twice his opponent has been able to drive up his pitch count with one long at-bat after another. In the regular season, his vaunted four-seam fastball, maybe the best anyone has ever thrown, earned a mind-bending 40.2% whiff rate; this October it’s down to a measly 16.1%. It should be made clear that Misiorowski hasn’t been bad in the postseason per se. (Three runs allowed in 8 ⅓ IP isn’t terrible at all.) But it’s a little underwhelming that the most amazing young flamethrower in the league has only been solid by middle-of-the-rotation standards in the biggest stage.

As previously mentioned, the fastball has been the most pressing issue for Misiorowski. In the regular season, he was able to pump 100+ mph heaters in the zone and bully hitters at will—so far, both the Padres and Dodgers have managed to, if not truly punish Misiorowski, dull his edges just enough to make him feel somewhat pedestrian. The Miz throws his fastball a ton, 63% of the time in the regular season, and has kept at it in both October starts; it’s what he does.

Misiorowski has also shown a marked tendency to throw his absolute hardest in the first inning, firing off a bunch of 102-104 mph bullets out of the gate, before gradually settling into an average that is a couple of ticks slower by the time the third or fourth rolls around. That means he’s still sitting 99 mph at his nadir, of course, but it’s the anti-Verlander approach to an extent. Hitters are seeing the very best of Misiorowski the first time they face him; by the time they dig in a second time, it’s the same fastball-heavy approach, but slightly muted in relative terms. Fatigue could be an issue—Misiorowski has cleared last year’s career-high in innings by more than 50 frames—but this was a trend he showed during the regular season as well. Will he adjust? Will we see more secondary offerings, which he’s struggled to land for strikes this postseason?

Maybe…or maybe not, because Tampa was the worst team in baseball against four-seamers at 98 mph or harder this year, with a ghastly .206 wOBA as a team and only two home runs. This, in essence, is what makes the matchup so interesting. Misiorowski may or may not be fatiguing, and his gameplan may or may not encounter hiccups against playoff lineups with dedicated gameplans, but his best shot at recapturing his summer magic  in what could theoretically be the final start of his historic sophomore campaign remains his trusty fastball.