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When the Dodgers set their starting rotation for the National League Division Series, they did so with the NL Championship Series in mind.
And now that they’ve reached the NLCS, after eliminating the Braves in a four-game NLDS this past week, they have their pitching plans exactly where they want them.
For a second straight series, Tarik Skubal will once again be the team’s Game 1 starter against the Brewers on Sunday, manager Dave Roberts announced during a Friday video conference with reporters, setting up the reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner to square off with this year’s presumptive Cy Young winner in Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski.
After that, Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be bumped up for Game 2, representing a shift from the NLDS when Yamamoto didn’t start until Game 3.
The Dodgers had pushed back Yamamoto’s start in the NLDS to keep him on his normal once-per-week pitching schedule, sliding Blake Snell in as their Game 2 starter instead.
The move briefly seemed questionable, after Snell managed only 3 ⅔ innings in a five-walk, one-run start in the team’s Game 2 loss.
However, Yamamoto calmed the waters by outdueling Chris Sale in Game 3, producing a seven-inning, one-run gem that lowered his career postseason ERA to 2.14 (second-best in the last 100 years among pitchers with at least 10 playoff starts, behind only Madison Bumgarner).
Now, just as the team envisioned, Yamamoto will be able to start twice in the NLCS — set to go on five days of rest for Monday’s Game 2, then on five days of rest again for a potential Game 6.
Snell, meanwhile, seems likely to pitch in Game 3. Tyler Glasnow would be the logical Game 4 choice. Skubal could go on four days of rest for Game 5.
“I think we’ve got the best rotation top to bottom in baseball,” Roberts said. “And it’s nice to be able to reset the rotation and get these guys going.
Indeed, the Dodgers’ rotation figures to represent their biggest matchup advantage over the Brewers. In last year’s NLCS sweep against Milwaukee, a quartet of Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani combined to give up just two runs in 28 ⅔ innings while combining for 35 strikeouts against the Brewers’ overmatched lineup.
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One key to their success then: The Dodgers’ rotation peppered the Brewers’ contact-happy lineup with a heavy dose of off-speed and breaking pitches.
Snell spammed them with a flurry of changeups in a scoreless eight-inning masterpiece. Yamamoto leaned on his splitter and curveball in the first of his two complete-game performances last October. Glasnow abandoned his trademark four-seam/curveball combination for a mix of more sinkers and sliders in a 5 ⅔-inning start. Ohtani threw the kitchen sink at them with a seven-pitch arsenal in his iconic 10-strikeout, three-homer outburst in Game 4.
In those games, only Yamamoto didn’t significantly decrease his fastball usage compared to his regular-season average.
The plan worked, getting the Brewers to uncharacteristically chase more often and whiff on one-third of all their swings in the series.
Roberts was careful to note on Friday that this is a new year, and that the Brewers pose a different challenge than they did back then.
“They’ve got another year under their belt,” Roberts said. “They’re just a lot more confident.”
Still, the Dodgers will hope to replicate their pitching success once again, inserting the newly acquired Skubal in for the injury-hampered Ohtani in a starting rotation they hope can carry them to a third straight NL pennant.



![[FanGraphs] Updated Odds of Winning the World Series Dodgers: 54%, Brewers 18.1%, Rays 16.7%, Guardians 8.3%, White Sox 3%](https://external-preview.redd.it/WBiWHXYbbuSlsp-mon8VlV-Ko3Pa27adk_-QbBNbnEQ.png?width=320&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=d60f079a3c48c781e110885b7b52ba5f49fdcf83)



![[Ardaya] Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto start Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS, Dave Roberts said.](https://external-preview.redd.it/eHKlWzcsb65mQea4QLdtwKNTQI2zCat6evp0bqJonHc.jpeg?width=108&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=e819c3737989d039338b2a6518384314311a8332)










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