As the second half of the season gets under way this weekend, it’s the perfect time to take stock of where each team finds itself with less than three weeks to go until the trade deadline. Yesterday, I covered the teams ranked 18th to 30th according to our power rankings. Today, I’ll finish with the teams most likely to be vying for playoff spots this fall.

Our power rankings use a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant ranking format that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out between now and October, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise remains reactive to hot streaks and cold snaps. If you’re looking for a visual representation of the ups and downs of your team throughout the season, look no further than the brand new Power Rankings Board in the FanGraphs Lab.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

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Despite entering the All-Star break having been swept by the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers are still well positioned to win their 13th division title over the last 14 seasons. Shohei Ohtani’s nagging knee issue that forced him to skip his final start of the first half and bow out of the All-Star game is a concern, though Los Angeles seems confident it will be able to manage the injury. Both Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow are on the mend and should rejoin the rotation in time for the stretch run. That should give the team plenty of depth to ensure the pitching staff is well rested for another deep postseason push this fall.

Like the Dodgers, the Brewers were swept by a division rival over the weekend. Unlike Los Angeles, Milwaukee only has a five-game cushion in the NL Central after dropping those three games against the Pirates. That’s still the second-largest division lead in baseball. If there’s something to be concerned about, it’s the health of the pitching staff. A recurrence of his ongoing shoulder trouble has sidelined Brandon Woodruff for the foreseeable future, Kyle Harrison was placed on the IL with forearm tightness last week, and Jacob Misiorowski missed his final start of the first half with arm fatigue. The Brewers have a deep pitching staff, though there’s really no replacing pitchers of Misiorowski or Harrison’s caliber. Milwaukee acted early to shore up some of that issue, acquiring Lance McCullers Jr. and Colton Gordon from the Astros on Wednesday.

The Phillies have essentially performed as we expected them to since the beginning of May — the early-season slump that led to Rob Thomson’s dismissal feels like ages ago. This is a superstar-driven team, and with the notable exception of Trea Turner, Philadelphia’s top players have lived up to their billing and carried the club to within two games of the division lead at the break. Still, no team has outperformed its Pythagorean record (+7 wins) or Base Runs (+8) record more than the Phillies. There are more than a few holes to fill to ensure they don’t come crashing back toward their -10 run differential during the second half. Unfortunately, a thin farm system might hold them back from making any impactful moves ahead of the trade deadline. This just might be the group the Phillies roll with in the postseason.

The Rays finished the first half with a 4-3 homestand against the Yankees and Mariners, and they’ll start the second half with an eight-game road trip through Boston and Toronto. They’ve passed every test thrown at them and continue to exceed expectations. Like the Phillies, they’ve greatly outperformed their underlying peripherals, and any moves over the next few weeks should be made with an eye toward closing the gap between their actual and expected performance. That probably means focusing on lengthening the lineup, ideally with a power hitter to complement Junior Caminero.

It’s pretty easy to see which additions the Cubs will be targeting ahead of the trade deadline: pitching, pitching, and more pitching. They currently have 12 pitchers on the IL, and the depth of the staff has been stretched dangerously thin. Thankfully, Pete Crow-Armstrong is making a furious case for NL MVP. Since the beginning of June, he’s posted a 231 wRC+ with 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases, and he enters the second half leading all major league position players with 6.0 WAR, more than a win above second-place Bobby Witt Jr. As long as the team keeps hitting well, a playoff berth should be well within reach. How deep the Cubs go in the postseason will likely come down to how big their pitching upgrades will be over the next few weeks.

The Yankees have mostly treaded water since losing Aaron Judge to his rib injury; they are 18-19 without their superstar anchoring the lineup. A four-game winning streak to close the first half of the season snapped a particularly ugly 5-15 stretch. The good news is that both Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are close to returning from their respective injuries. While New York should be looking to bolster the bullpen and lengthen the lineup however it can, its biggest second-half upgrade will come when Judge returns to the lineup, though that still appears to be at least another month away.

The Marlins have the best record in baseball since the beginning of June, though they went into the All-Star break on a bit of a down note after getting swept by the Guardians last weekend. During this stretch, Miami has allowed the fewest runs in the National League and the third fewest in baseball. Since returning from the IL in late June, Eury Pérez has been fantastic, allowing just four runs in 23 innings. That stretch includes his July 5 start against the Athletics, when he was removed after seven perfect innings and 90 pitches. Because the Marlins are still a very young team, they may not be ready to mortgage the future to go all-in this year. Instead, a host of smaller moves to bolster the bullpen and add some depth to the lineup seems like the prudent path forward.

The Braves have really struggled to maintain all their momentum from their strong start to the season. Over the last 30 days, the starting rotation has limped to a 5.49 ERA and a 5.52 FIP, fifth and second worst in baseball, respectively. Injuries have taken their toll on the team’s depth, and Bryce Elder has really struggled — he has a ghastly 11.00 ERA over his last four starts — after being one of Atlanta’s best starters over the first two months. At the same time, the offense has taken a huge step back, posting the worst wRC+ in baseball over this same stretch. Ronald Acuña Jr. and AJ Smith-Shawver should be returning from their injuries shortly, which should alleviate some of the team’s issues. Still, I’d expect to see some big moves to try and shore up the pitching staff ahead of the trade deadline.

Last year, the Red Sox strung 10 straight wins together to finish off the first half, launching them into the thick of the AL Wild Card race. This season, they’re riding a nine-game winning streak that’s propelled them onto the fringe of the AL playoff field heading into the second half. Since the beginning of June, only the Tigers have allowed fewer runs than the Red Sox. Just a few weeks ago, Boston looked like an obvious seller, but now it’s not so certain. At the very least, adding some depth to cover for a rash of injuries around the infield seems like an easy problem to tackle — the team already claimed Jahmai Jones off waivers from Detroit. If the Red Sox can manage to tread water over the next month, the returns of Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony could give them a big boost down the stretch.

The Guardians have gone 12-13 since placing José Ramírez on the IL on June 14. That matches the White Sox’ record over that same period, which means these two teams finished the first half tied atop the AL Central. Chase DeLauter has picked up a lot of the slack on offense; since returning from his injury on June 28, he’s run a 176 wRC+ with four home runs. The pitching staff has been solid as well, allowing the fourth-fewest runs in baseball since the beginning of June. The roster is good enough, and the AL playoff picture wide open enough, that Cleveland should be fine to wait for Ramírez’s return. So don’t hold your breath for any big moves over these next few weeks.

Much like the Marlins, the White Sox are in a position to contend for a playoff spot well ahead of schedule. That puts them in a little bit of an awkward position before the trade deadline. They need some help in the starting rotation, but I don’t think they’re ready to mortgage some of their future to make a truly impactful trade. At least the lineup received a much-needed reinforcement when Munetaka Murakami returned from the IL last weekend. Chicago will head into the second half with 22 games against a bunch of AL playoff contenders — the Blue Jays, Rangers, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, and Guardians. That gauntlet seems like a pretty good test to see if this team is for real.

With an 11-5 record over their final 16 games of the first half, the Rangers snuck past the Mariners to claim first place in the AL West. Just two games above .500, Texas isn’t exactly a powerhouse, just lucky enough to play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. The team has gotten nearly nothing from Corey Seager this year — he’s back on the IL with a recurring back issue — and Wyatt Langford just returned from his second stint on the IL last weekend. The pitching staff has fallen back to the middle of the pack after leading baseball in run prevention in 2025. Still, the NL West is wide open and there’s enough talent on the roster to make a run. The Rangers should add some infield depth to cover for Seager in case he can’t get healthy, as well as bolster the bullpen.

The Pirates swept the Brewers last weekend to head into the All-Star break with some much-needed momentum. He was still missing his signature dominance, but Paul Skenes looked a lot better in his final start of the first half on Sunday, holding Milwaukee to two runs in 5 1/3 innings while striking out seven. The pitching staff will need some reinforcements if Pittsburgh is truly going to contend, especially in the bullpen. Shockingly, the lineup looks just fine. Even though Konnor Griffin has been sidelined with a finger injury, the offense is tied with the Nationals for the most runs scored in baseball. Last week, the Pirates traded with the White Sox for Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert to begin patching up the roster, but that should just be the start of their shopping, not the end of it.

The Twins have the fourth-best record in the AL since June 1 and finished the first half of the season just a single game under .500. They’re currently tied with the Mariners for the final Wild Card berth. After their dramatic tear down last summer, the fact that they’re even in the playoff picture at all a year later has to be considered a success. They’re not exactly in a position to buy at the trade deadline, but they’ve played their way out of being an obvious seller. The big concern is Byron Buxton’s health; a nagging hip injury finally forced him to the IL just before the All-Star break. Without his bat in the lineup, the team looks considerably less dangerous.

Speaking of quick turnarounds after a fire sale, the Cardinals are in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt after moving a ton of veterans off the roster this offseason. Jordan Walker continued his breakout by winning the Home Run Derby earlier this week, and the team signed JJ Wetherholt to a huge eight-year extension last Friday. By leading all NL rookies in WAR, the second baseman is the frontrunner to win the Rookie of the Year award. Those youngsters are leading the charge for this rejuvenated ballclub, but St. Louis will need to try and thread the needle between supporting this core right now while also continuing to build for the future. That’s a tricky balance to strike ahead of the trade deadline. If the Cardinals end up buying, you can bet that adding some pitching will be a priority.

Despite an encouraging sweep of the Dodgers last weekend, the Diamondbacks still find themselves stuck between competing and building for the future. It doesn’t help that the starting rotation has recently been decimated by injuries. Zac Gallen hit the IL last week with elbow inflammation, joining Michael Soroka and Ryne Nelson on the shelf, and Corbin Burnes suffered a setback last month during his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The Snakes could use a ton of reinforcements right now, but they might just wait to see if some of those injured players can return to give them a boost later on this summer.

The Mariners wrapped up the first half of the season with a hugely disappointing 1-5 road trip through Miami and Tampa Bay. That dropped their record to a game below .500, though they’re only 1.5 games back in the AL West and currently in possession of a Wild Card berth. It isn’t hard to see the problem: They’ve only gotten 2.5 WAR combined from Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez this season, and Brendan Donovan has only played in 25 games. Sure, there are other smaller problems in the lineup and bullpen, but if Seattle’s superstars aren’t producing, it’s hard to live up to the lofty expectations placed on the team after its first ALCS appearance since 2001.